Modeling and Forecasting Primary Commodity Prices

Modeling and Forecasting Primary Commodity Prices

Labys, Walter C.

Taylor & Francis Ltd

10/2006

264

Dura

Inglês

9780754646297

15 a 20 dias

Provides insights into the modeling and forecasting of primary commodity prices by featuring comprehensive applications of various methods of statistical time series analysis. Relevant tests employed include neural networks, correlation dimensions, Lyapunov exponents, fractional integration and rescaled range.
Contents: Introduction; History of Commodity Price Analysis. Long Run Price Movements: Identifying trends and breaks; Convergence of commodity prices. Medium Run Price Movements: Identifying price cycles; Business cycle impacts. Short Run Price Movements: Color of commodity prices; Wavelet models in the time frequency domain. Price Forecasting: Noisy chaotic dynamics; Structural forecasting models; Prospects for the future; Appendix: resources for future research; Bibliography; Index.
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